Nebraska has one of the most resilient state economies in the country, but that doesn’t mean we’re immune from all hardship. A new forecast from UNL predicts that a recession is likely next year. The good news is that it may not be totally awful, and it may not last too long. But whether good or bad, we should at least be informed.
Here are Five Fast Facts about the coming expected recession:
- 💲 A Necessary Evil…? - The biggest cause of the economic slowdown is the Federal Reserve Bank raising interest rates so much over the past year (over 4%), to the highest level in almost 15 years. Sometimes we don’t want to excel; this is one of those times.
- 2️⃣ The Big Two - Two key indicators will show just how bad the recession will be: the decline in property values and employment rates. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out how those are super important!
- 📉📈 Jobs Jobs Jobs - We’ll have to see how the property values go, but employment is expected to go down just a tiny bit in 2023, by 0.2%. In 2024 and 2025, though, it’s supposed to go back up by 0.6% and 0.9%. Such small numbers, such big impact!
- 🏨🚌 Good And Bad - The rebound job growth after 2023 is expected to be mostly in services industries. Manufacturing, transportation, and financial services should be pretty good, too. Retail and wholesale will likely struggle.
- 🚜 The Backbone - Agriculture is expected to stay strong. Income growth may be slightly less than inflation in 2023 (4.2%) but should exceed it in 2024 and 2025. Keep husking that corn, farmers!
🔥Bottom line: What does this mean for your Paycheck? Well, obviously, it depends on what kind of job you have. While things will likely remain tight for a while, it’s good to know that there are better days ahead!
Do you think the Fed is doing the right thing by raising interest rates?
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